Treasury Yields Vary

Published July 11, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields declined midweek as investors reacted to the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting which suggested that future rate cuts were likely. Yields rose toward the end of the week following the latest data showing the labor market remains strong.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. At the meeting, the policy makers agreed unanimously to leave the key federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%. The minutes suggested that while most officials believed that some rate reduction would be appropriate this year, there was a range of opinions concerning the number of cuts and the timing for their implementation.

“In considering the likelihood of various scenarios, participants agreed that the risks of higher inflation and weaker labor market conditions had diminished but remained elevated,” noted the minutes. “Participants agreed that although uncertainty about inflation and the economic outlook had decreased, it remained appropriate to take a careful approach in adjusting monetary policy

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of July 7 at 4.34% and traded as high as 4.38% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.88% and traded as high as 4.90% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment were 227,000 for the week ending July 5. This was down 5,000 from the prior week and fell below analysts’ expectations of 235,000. Continuing unemployment claims increased by 10,000 to 1.97 million.

“It is difficult to find a new job right now. Young people are struggling to get their first jobs and anyone who has been laid off is having a hard time landing their next role,” said chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, Heather Long. “The labor market is frozen outside of healthcare, education and law enforcement jobs. Hiring is anemic in other sectors as companies remain cautious in this environment.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 7/7 at 4.41%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.96%.